PRQ

beta

The register, Monte Carlo engine, correlation between risks, sensitivity tornado, funded percentile chooser, and the PDF report with its methodology annex are all live today. Beta means the surface is still moving, not that the numbers are provisional.

Project

Project name

Base estimate (optional)

Currency

Base-estimate uncertainty — sample a spread around the base each iteration and add it to the total

Shape

Min (% of base)

Most likely (%)

Max (% of base)

Risk register

4 risks · 4 active in the simulation

Category	P(occur)	Impact distribution
Operational	30%	tri$50,000/$120,000/$350,000
Schedule	50%	pert$75,000/$200,000/$500,000
Technical	10%	tri$200,000/$600,000/$1,500,000
Regulatory	20%	pert$30,000/$80,000/$250,000

Simulation

Iterations

10 000 is enough to stabilise P50 / P80 / P90 on a register of this size. Bigger runs tighten the tails.

Seed (optional)

Same seed, same figures — for runs that need to be reproduced exactly.

This simulation assumes no correlation between risk items. Positively correlated risks will produce understated tail outcomes.