BGR · snapshot 2026-08-09
Bulgaria
MediumOverall risk score
35.1
Percentile of scored universe
28th
Data coverage
97%
vs Australia (16.1)
+19.0
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Medium6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Low6 indicators · 85% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Security & Crime
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Bulgaria rates Medium for market entry — an overall risk score of 35.1, less risky than 72% of rated economies and 19 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia and high modern-slavery prevalence (8.5 per 1,000).
Relative strengths: secure internet servers sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and government net debt and DFAT smartraveller advisory level both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Banking friction. FATF-listed jurisdiction: expect enhanced due diligence, slower cross-border payments, and possible correspondent-banking gaps — keep KYC documentation impeccable and allow longer settlement times.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- Modern slavery compliance. Elevated modern-slavery risk: apply enhanced supply-chain due diligence and document it — Australian Modern Slavery Act reporting will expect exactly this analysis.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 60.6 | 41.7 | Medium | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 52.2 | 48.5 | Medium | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 59.4 | 34.4 | Medium | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 56.4 | 47.6 | Medium | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 43.0 | 50.5 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 66.6 | 49.0 | Medium | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 2.7% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±2.7 pp | 32.5 | Medium | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 19.5 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 4.6 | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -2.5% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $44,451 | 29.9 | Medium | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.45 | 60.0 | High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Pegged — credible (reserve-backed, low inflation gap) | 12.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 2 / 7 | 16.0 | Low | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Grey list | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.04 | 42.7 | Medium | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 3.2 | 37.7 | Medium | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | 71.7 | 15.3 | Low | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 1.1 | 30.7 | Medium | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 5.6 | 62.8 | High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 1 — Exercise normal safety precautions | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.361 | 19.2 | Low | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 2.6 | 24.9 | Low | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 8.5 | 82.2 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 25.9 | 22.5 | Low | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.8 | 28.2 | Medium | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 82.4 | 49.7 | Medium | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 1.1 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 50750.6 | 11.9 | Low | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
3.5%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Bulgaria in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.