BWA · snapshot 2026-08-09
Botswana
MediumOverall risk score
39.6
Percentile of scored universe
39th
Data coverage
100%
vs Australia (16.1)
+23.5
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Medium6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Very High7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Security & Crime
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Botswana rates Medium for market entry — an overall risk score of 39.6, less risky than 61% of rated economies and 23 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, growth outside the healthy range (-0.1%, 3-yr average), violent crime (11.4 homicides per 100k) and a boom-bust growth record (±5.7 pp over the decade).
Relative strengths: political stability & absence of violence/terrorism sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and DFAT smartraveller advisory level and current account both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Currency risk. Invoice in AUD or USD where the market allows, hedge unavoidable exposure, shorten receivable cycles, and build FX buffers into pricing.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
- Connectivity constraints. Thin digital infrastructure: plan for offline-capable operations, local hosting or caching, and paper-tolerant processes with government counterparts.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 62.0 | 40.2 | Medium | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 59.4 | 33.9 | Medium | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 61.2 | 31.5 | Medium | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 62.3 | 38.9 | Medium | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 60.6 | 26.8 | Medium | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 83.5 | 16.7 | Low | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | -0.1% (3-yr avg) | 90.0 | Very High | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±5.7 pp | 80.5 | Very High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 37.2 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 2.7 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -1.1% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 4.8 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $20,698 | 51.5 | High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 1.00 | 5.0 | Low | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Step-devaluation history (>15% single-month move) | 70.0 | High | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 3 / 7 | 28.0 | Medium | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.16 | 59.6 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 3.1 | 41.3 | Medium | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | 60.7 | 50.0 | High | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 11.4 | 82.4 | Very High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 4.2 | 24.7 | Low | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 1 — Exercise normal safety precautions | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.484 | 66.1 | High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 3.0 | 36.9 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 1.8 | 10.9 | Low | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 45.0 | 41.6 | Medium | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.6 | 57.8 | High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 57.5 | 76.1 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.1 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 471.2 | 59.8 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
24.5%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Botswana in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.