CHN · snapshot 2026-08-09
China
MediumOverall risk score
41.4
Percentile of scored universe
42th
Data coverage
97%
vs Australia (16.1)
+25.3
Sanctions & banking access
Where sanctions make China hard to operate in — under Australian law, under US/EU extraterritorial reach, and in practice at the bank. Comprehensive frameworks force Very High; severe secondary exposure or severed banking floors the band at High; the rest is disclosure.
Australian sanctions
DFAT frameworks that legally restrict Australian companies
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
US/EU secondary sanctions
Extraterritorial programs that bind you regardless of Australian law
Entity List and NS-CMIC designations plus the UFLPA forced-labour presumption create US exposure for supply chains and re-exports — screening obligation, not a country sanctions program
Banking access
Will correspondent banks actually move your money out
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Medium7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Medium3 indicators · 75% coverage
Security & Crime
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Medium9 indicators · 100% coverage · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
China rates Medium for market entry — an overall risk score of 41.4, less risky than 58% of rated economies and 25 points riskier than Australia.
No Australian sanctions framework applies, but the practical picture is harder: US/EU designations require enhanced screening: Entity List and NS-CMIC designations plus the UFLPA forced-labour presumption create US exposure for supply chains and re-exports — screening obligation, not a country sanctions program.
The main risk drivers are heavy public debt (net 99.2% of GDP), significant cybercrime origination (WCI 27.9/100), weak civic voice and accountability, a restricted capital account that complicates repatriating profits and pervasive organised crime (6.3/10).
Relative strengths: growth volatility sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and FX reserves and GDP growth both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Secondary-sanctions exposure. US/EU sanctions reach further than Australian law: screen counterparties against the OFAC SDN list as well as the DFAT list, remember that any USD transaction creates US jurisdiction, and obtain specialist advice before contracting with state-linked entities.
- Organised crime. Expect extortion, counterfeiting, and cargo-theft exposure: harden supply-chain security, vet logistics partners and distributors carefully, and avoid cash-heavy channels.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
- Cultural bridging. Large cultural distance: invest in local partners, bilingual advisers, and longer relationship-building timelines — assume negotiation and management norms differ materially.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 27.9 | 92.9 | Very High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 68.8 | 20.7 | Low | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 53.7 | 48.5 | Medium | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 47.0 | 67.4 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 49.6 | 43.2 | Medium | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 63.3 | 57.2 | High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 5.1% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±1.9 pp | 13.2 | Low | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 99.2 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 0.1 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | 2.5% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 11.9 months | 10.0 | Low | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $29,333 | 40.5 | Medium | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.16 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — low volatility (<8%) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 2 / 7 | 16.0 | Low | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | In force | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.23 | 65.6 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 3.7 | 14.9 | Low | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | In force | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 59.7 | High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 0.5 | 7.2 | Low | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 6.3 | 76.6 | Very High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.394 | 30.3 | Medium | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 3.0 | 36.9 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 4.0 | 30.9 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 45.5 | 43.4 | Medium | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.9 | 17.9 | Low | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 91.6 | 25.0 | Medium | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 27.9 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 1413.3 | 45.3 | Medium | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
4.6%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
Free trade agreement with Australia in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to China in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.