CUB · snapshot 2026-08-09
Cuba
HighOverride appliedOverall risk score
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Percentile of scored universe
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Data coverage
72%
vs Australia (16.1)
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Band raised to High by override — its own data would rate it lower.
Computed risk score: withheld — only 4 of 7 weighted categories could be scored (minimum 5). The override takes precedence: Helms-Burton extraterritorial provisions and state-sponsor listing expose non-US companies and their banks; USD clearing effectively unavailable; widespread bank de-risking of Cuba-related payments regardless of nationality.
Sanctions & banking access
Where sanctions make Cuba hard to operate in — under Australian law, under US/EU extraterritorial reach, and in practice at the bank. Comprehensive frameworks force Very High; severe secondary exposure or severed banking floors the band at High; the rest is disclosure.
Australian sanctions
DFAT frameworks that legally restrict Australian companies
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
US/EU secondary sanctions
Extraterritorial programs that bind you regardless of Australian law
Helms-Burton extraterritorial provisions and state-sponsor listing expose non-US companies and their banks
Banking access
Will correspondent banks actually move your money out
USD clearing effectively unavailable; widespread bank de-risking of Cuba-related payments regardless of nationality
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Financial & Currency Risk
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Cuba does not meet the floors for an overall rating: only 4 of 7 weighted categories could be scored (minimum 5). Treat the category detail below as partial evidence, not a verdict.
An override floors the band at High: Helms-Burton extraterritorial provisions and state-sponsor listing expose non-US companies and their banks; USD clearing effectively unavailable; widespread bank de-risking of Cuba-related payments regardless of nationality.
No Australian sanctions framework applies, but the practical picture is harder: US/EU secondary sanctions apply in force: Helms-Burton extraterritorial provisions and state-sponsor listing expose non-US companies and their banks. Further, in practice the banking channel is severed: USD clearing effectively unavailable; widespread bank de-risking of Cuba-related payments regardless of nationality.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, weak logistics performance, weak regulatory quality and elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7).
Possible mitigations
- Secondary-sanctions exposure. US/EU sanctions reach further than Australian law: screen counterparties against the OFAC SDN list as well as the DFAT list, remember that any USD transaction creates US jurisdiction, and obtain specialist advice before contracting with state-linked entities.
- Repatriation channel risk. Correspondent banks may refuse or delay payments even where they are legal: test the channel with pilot transfers before committing capital, maintain more than one banking relationship, consider non-USD invoicing where lawful, and build payment delays into working capital.
- Duty of care for people. DFAT advises against non-essential travel. Review duty-of-care obligations, prefer remote engagement, and use in-country agents rather than travelling staff where possible.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 34.6 | 84.6 | Very High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 46.1 | 61.2 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 32.2 | 93.4 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 46.2 | 68.4 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 43.3 | 50.0 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 71.3 | 42.3 | Medium | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | -0.4% (3-yr avg) | 90.0 | Very High | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±4.2 pp | 63.2 | High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.2 | 94.9 | Very High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 4.5 | 65.2 | High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 3.4 | 12.5 | Low | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 3 — Reconsider your need to travel | 70.0 | High | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.457 | 56.6 | High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 3.3 | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 5.4 | 49.1 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 42.7 | 39.1 | Medium | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.5 | 71.8 | High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 70.5 | 64.8 | High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.2 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 192.5 | 69.5 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
1.7%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Cuba in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.