LBN · snapshot 2026-08-09
Lebanon
Very HighOverride appliedOverall risk score
80.3
Percentile of scored universe
96th
Data coverage
93%
vs Australia (16.1)
+64.2
Rated Very High on its own indicators; a gate condition is also flagged.
The Very High rating stands on the computed score of 80.3 (Very High). The flagged condition — UNSC sanctions framework (Lebanon); DFAT advice: Do not travel (Level 4) — would floor the band at High even on weaker data.
Sanctions & banking access
Where sanctions make Lebanon hard to operate in — under Australian law, under US/EU extraterritorial reach, and in practice at the bank. Comprehensive frameworks force Very High; severe secondary exposure or severed banking floors the band at High; the rest is disclosure.
Australian sanctions
DFAT frameworks that legally restrict Australian companies
UNSC sanctions framework (Lebanon)
US/EU secondary sanctions
Extraterritorial programs that bind you regardless of Australian law
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
Banking access
Will correspondent banks actually move your money out
Domestic banking-sector insolvency compounded by Hizballah-designation de-risking of cross-border payments
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Very High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Very High7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Very High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Lebanon rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 80.3, riskier than 96% of rated economies and 64 points riskier than Australia.
An override floors the band at High: UNSC sanctions framework (Lebanon); DFAT advice: Do not travel (Level 4).
Beyond the Australian framework, correspondent banking is constrained: Domestic banking-sector insolvency compounded by Hizballah-designation de-risking of cross-border payments.
The main risk drivers are elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7 — in default), no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, armed conflict (16.4 battle deaths per 100k/yr) and pervasive organised crime (7.3/10).
Possible mitigations
- Repatriation channel risk. Correspondent banks may refuse or delay payments even where they are legal: test the channel with pilot transfers before committing capital, maintain more than one banking relationship, consider non-USD invoicing where lawful, and build payment delays into working capital.
- Duty of care for people. DFAT advises against non-essential travel. Review duty-of-care obligations, prefer remote engagement, and use in-country agents rather than travelling staff where possible.
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Organised crime. Expect extortion, counterfeiting, and cargo-theft exposure: harden supply-chain security, vet logistics partners and distributors carefully, and avoid cash-heavy channels.
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Currency risk. Invoice in AUD or USD where the market allows, hedge unavoidable exposure, shorten receivable cycles, and build FX buffers into pricing.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 43.3 | 68.5 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 29.4 | 90.5 | Very High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 39.7 | 85.6 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 38.3 | 81.9 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 21.5 | 90.6 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 42.2 | 88.2 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | -2.8% (3-yr avg) | 90.0 | Very High | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±6.9 pp | 87.3 | Very High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 131.4 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 14.6 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -31.4% (3-yr avg) | 85.0 | Very High | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 13.6 months | 10.0 | Low | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $11,917 | 67.6 | High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.45 | 60.0 | High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — crisis volatility (>35%) | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 — in default | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Grey list | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.14 | 56.9 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.7 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 16.4 | 97.5 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 2.2 | 50.0 | High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 7.3 | 95.6 | Very High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 4 — Do not travel | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.455 | 54.5 | High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 6.6 | 90.3 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 7.6 | 72.2 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 60.0 | 75.9 | Very High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.5 | 65.0 | High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 80.6 | 54.0 | High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.3 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 267.3 | 66.3 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
11.0%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2023, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Lebanon in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.