PNG · snapshot 2026-08-09
Papua New Guinea
Very HighOverall risk score
60.9
Percentile of scored universe
78th
Data coverage
89%
vs Australia (16.1)
+44.8
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Medium7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Very High3 indicators · 80% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Papua New Guinea rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 60.9, riskier than 78% of rated economies and 45 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are low internet adoption (18.8% of the population), conditions that enable modern slavery, high natural-disaster risk, weak digital government and high modern-slavery prevalence (10.3 per 1,000).
Relative strengths: inflation, currency stability, GDP growth all rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Banking friction. FATF-listed jurisdiction: expect enhanced due diligence, slower cross-border payments, and possible correspondent-banking gaps — keep KYC documentation impeccable and allow longer settlement times.
- Modern slavery compliance. Elevated modern-slavery risk: apply enhanced supply-chain due diligence and document it — Australian Modern Slavery Act reporting will expect exactly this analysis.
- Disaster resilience. High natural-hazard exposure: build business-continuity plans, check insurance availability (including parametric covers), and avoid single-point supply dependencies.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 51.1 | 57.3 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 33.8 | 84.6 | Very High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 45.4 | 70.5 | High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 47.1 | 65.9 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 31.7 | 75.1 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 54.7 | 76.1 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 4.4% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±3.1 pp | 42.5 | Medium | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 52.1 | 60.0 | High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 4.4 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | 13.0% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 4.9 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $5,215 | 82.2 | Very High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.30 | 60.0 | High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Pegged — credible (reserve-backed, low inflation gap) | 12.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 6 / 7 | 82.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Grey list | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | In force | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.7 | 59.1 | High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | In force | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.7 | 85.5 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 9.3 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 5.8 | 65.9 | High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.549 | 86.6 | Very High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 6.5 | 89.8 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 10.3 | 87.8 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 78.8 | 91.6 | Very High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.3 | 88.3 | Very High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 18.8 | 95.4 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.0 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 88.1 | 78.8 | Very High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
2.6%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 3)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Papua New Guinea in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.