ZMB · snapshot 2026-08-09
Zambia
HighOverall risk score
51.7
Percentile of scored universe
56th
Data coverage
89%
vs Australia (16.1)
+35.6
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Very High7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Low3 indicators · 80% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
High9 indicators · 100% coverage · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Zambia rates High for market entry — an overall risk score of 51.7, riskier than 56% of rated economies and 36 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, low internet adoption (17.1% of the population), unstable prices (CPI 13.9%) and elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7).
Relative strengths: DFAT smartraveller advisory level, GDP growth, current account all rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Currency risk. Invoice in AUD or USD where the market allows, hedge unavoidable exposure, shorten receivable cycles, and build FX buffers into pricing.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Price instability. Use indexation clauses, shorter pricing cycles, and local-cost pass-through mechanisms so inflation (or deflation) doesn't silently erode margins.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 49.7 | 60.2 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 41.0 | 68.5 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 48.2 | 63.2 | High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 47.3 | 65.5 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 38.6 | 62.6 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 64.2 | 55.8 | High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 4.3% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±2.5 pp | 28.6 | Medium | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 81.0 | 80.0 | Very High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 13.9 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -1.2% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 3.3 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $4,379 | 86.7 | Very High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 1.00 | 5.0 | Low | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — high volatility (20–35%) | 75.0 | Very High | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.19 | 61.5 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.5 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 5.2 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 4.8 | 39.8 | Medium | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 1 — Exercise normal safety precautions | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.492 | 70.3 | High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 4.6 | 68.8 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 5.1 | 45.9 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 58.1 | 70.9 | High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.5 | 67.1 | High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 17.1 | 96.5 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.1 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 80.5 | 81.2 | Very High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
5.9%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 2)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Zambia in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.