ARM · snapshot 2026-08-09
Armenia
MediumOverall risk score
46.3
Percentile of scored universe
48th
Data coverage
97%
vs Australia (16.1)
+30.2
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Medium7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
High3 indicators · 75% coverage
Security & Crime
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Armenia rates Medium for market entry — an overall risk score of 46.3, less risky than 52% of rated economies and 30 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, armed conflict (1.2 battle deaths per 100k/yr), high modern-slavery prevalence (8.9 per 1,000) and political instability.
Relative strengths: organised crime pervasiveness sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and inflation and currency stability both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
- Modern slavery compliance. Elevated modern-slavery risk: apply enhanced supply-chain due diligence and document it — Australian Modern Slavery Act reporting will expect exactly this analysis.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 59.0 | 44.6 | Medium | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 44.3 | 66.1 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 57.0 | 37.8 | Medium | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 54.5 | 50.0 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 50.8 | 40.8 | Medium | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 53.5 | 79.5 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 7.1% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±5.4 pp | 76.7 | Very High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 49.0 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 3.3 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -4.9% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 3.4 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $24,754 | 46.0 | Medium | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 1.00 | 5.0 | Low | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — low volatility (<8%) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 5 / 7 | 64.0 | High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.02 | 35.8 | Medium | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.5 | 75.4 | Very High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 1.2 | 87.8 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 2.2 | 48.6 | Medium | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 3.0 | 9.1 | Low | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.394 | 29.2 | Medium | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 3.1 | 40.3 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 8.9 | 84.1 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 48.1 | 50.9 | High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.8 | 24.6 | Low | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 81.3 | 53.5 | High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.4 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 1735.3 | 43.0 | Medium | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
12.9%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 4)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Armenia in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.