ECU · snapshot 2026-08-09
Ecuador
Very HighOverall risk score
62.0
Percentile of scored universe
80th
Data coverage
89%
vs Australia (16.1)
+45.9
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Very High7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
High9 indicators · 100% coverage · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Ecuador rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 62.0, riskier than 80% of rated economies and 46 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, pervasive organised crime (7.5/10), violent crime (45.7 homicides per 100k) and armed conflict (1.9 battle deaths per 100k/yr).
Relative strengths: currency stability and current account both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Organised crime. Expect extortion, counterfeiting, and cargo-theft exposure: harden supply-chain security, vet logistics partners and distributors carefully, and avoid cash-heavy channels.
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 55.0 | 51.0 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 47.1 | 57.3 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 44.7 | 73.4 | High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 40.4 | 78.5 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 32.2 | 74.2 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 53.6 | 79.0 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 1.2% (3-yr avg) | 70.0 | High | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±5.2 pp | 75.2 | Very High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 54.4 | 60.0 | High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 0.7 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | 4.6% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 2.9 months | 55.0 | High | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $16,757 | 58.0 | High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.70 | 20.0 | Low | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | No independent currency (USD/EUR/AUD in use) | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 6 / 7 | 82.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.9 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 1.9 | 90.1 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 45.7 | 96.9 | Very High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 7.5 | 97.9 | Very High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.476 | 62.4 | High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 5.4 | 81.2 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 7.6 | 73.4 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 48.2 | 51.6 | High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.8 | 34.5 | Medium | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 77.2 | 57.8 | High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.4 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 490.9 | 58.4 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
3.3%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 4)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Ecuador in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.