MDG · snapshot 2026-08-09
Madagascar
Very HighOverall risk score
62.2
Percentile of scored universe
81th
Data coverage
96%
vs Australia (16.1)
+46.1
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Very High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Very High7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Very High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Security & Crime
Medium3 indicators · 80% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Madagascar rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 62.2, riskier than 81% of rated economies and 46 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, a low income level with limited crisis-absorption capacity, low internet adoption (18.7% of the population) and elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7).
Relative strength: currency stability rates Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Price instability. Use indexation clauses, shorter pricing cycles, and local-cost pass-through mechanisms so inflation (or deflation) doesn't silently erode margins.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 44.2 | 67.1 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 34.6 | 81.2 | Very High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 43.1 | 76.3 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 41.8 | 75.6 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 27.4 | 80.9 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 57.7 | 69.8 | High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 3.9% (3-yr avg) | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±3.6 pp | 52.2 | High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 48.7 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 8.1 | 70.0 | High | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -4.2% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 5.5 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $1,952 | 96.7 | Very High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.16 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — low volatility (<8%) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.17 | 60.6 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.3 | 90.9 | Very High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | 47.1 | 84.7 | Very High | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 5.8 | 67.7 | High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.550 | 87.1 | Very High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 5.4 | 81.2 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 4.6 | 40.3 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 59.6 | 74.7 | High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.3 | 86.8 | Very High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 18.7 | 96.0 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.0 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 25.1 | 89.1 | Very High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
3.0%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Madagascar in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.