TJK · snapshot 2026-08-09
Tajikistan
HighOverall risk score
57.5
Percentile of scored universe
70th
Data coverage
93%
vs Australia (16.1)
+41.4
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Very High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Low6 indicators · 80% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Very High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Very High3 indicators · 75% coverage
Security & Crime
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Tajikistan rates High for market entry — an overall risk score of 57.5, riskier than 70% of rated economies and 41 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, high modern-slavery prevalence (14.0 per 1,000), weak civic voice and accountability and elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7).
Relative strengths: growth volatility and physical climate vulnerability both sit in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and government net debt rates Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 28.1 | 92.4 | Very High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 39.7 | 71.5 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 42.9 | 77.3 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 36.6 | 86.7 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 23.2 | 87.2 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 61.2 | 62.1 | High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 8.4% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±1.3 pp | 3.6 | Low | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 21.6 | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | 9.4% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 5.7 months | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $5,923 | 80.7 | Very High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.24 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — normal volatility (8–13%) | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.08 | 50.0 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.5 | 75.4 | Very High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.2 | 79.0 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 0.9 | 24.5 | Low | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 5.4 | 58.6 | High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.367 | 21.8 | Low | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 4.0 | 57.6 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 14.0 | 96.6 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 66.5 | 82.8 | Very High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.6 | 63.5 | High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 55.8 | 77.2 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.0 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 152.5 | 72.8 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
6.9%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 4)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Tajikistan in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.