UZB · snapshot 2026-08-09
Uzbekistan
HighOverall risk score
47.2
Percentile of scored universe
50th
Data coverage
97%
vs Australia (16.1)
+31.1
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Low7 indicators · 100% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Very High3 indicators · 75% coverage
Security & Crime
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Uzbekistan rates High for market entry — an overall risk score of 47.2, riskier than 50% of rated economies and 31 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, a restricted capital account that complicates repatriating profits, weak civic voice and accountability and pervasive corruption.
Relative strengths: growth volatility sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and FX reserves and GDP growth both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
- Price instability. Use indexation clauses, shorter pricing cycles, and local-cost pass-through mechanisms so inflation (or deflation) doesn't silently erode margins.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
- Modern slavery compliance. Elevated modern-slavery risk: apply enhanced supply-chain due diligence and document it — Australian Modern Slavery Act reporting will expect exactly this analysis.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 38.6 | 76.8 | Very High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 48.5 | 54.9 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 46.6 | 68.5 | High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 45.7 | 69.8 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 32.6 | 73.2 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 65.4 | 52.4 | High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 6.9% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±1.8 pp | 11.8 | Low | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 28.6 | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 8.8 | 70.0 | High | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -5.3% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | 10.3 months | 10.0 | Low | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $13,601 | 63.6 | High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.16 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — low volatility (<8%) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 5 / 7 | 64.0 | High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | 0.20 | 62.4 | High | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.6 | 65.6 | High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 1.4 | 38.3 | Medium | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 4.9 | 44.0 | Medium | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.393 | 28.7 | Medium | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 3.2 | 42.4 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 7.4 | 70.3 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 55.6 | 63.4 | High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.8 | 32.4 | Medium | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 89.5 | 32.5 | Medium | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.0 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 966.6 | 50.5 | High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
4.6%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 4)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Uzbekistan in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.