GNB · snapshot 2026-08-09
Guinea-Bissau
Very HighOverride appliedOverall risk score
65.9
Percentile of scored universe
85th
Data coverage
82%
vs Australia (16.1)
+49.8
Rated Very High on its own indicators; a gate condition is also flagged.
The Very High rating stands on the computed score of 65.9 (Very High). The flagged condition — UNSC sanctions framework (Guinea-Bissau) — would floor the band at High even on weaker data.
Sanctions & banking access
Where sanctions make Guinea-Bissau hard to operate in — under Australian law, under US/EU extraterritorial reach, and in practice at the bank. Comprehensive frameworks force Very High; severe secondary exposure or severed banking floors the band at High; the rest is disclosure.
Australian sanctions
DFAT frameworks that legally restrict Australian companies
UNSC sanctions framework (Guinea-Bissau)
US/EU secondary sanctions
Extraterritorial programs that bind you regardless of Australian law
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
Banking access
Will correspondent banks actually move your money out
No framework, program, or de-risking pattern identified.
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Very High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
High6 indicators · 85% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Climate & Social Compliance
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Guinea-Bissau rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 65.9, riskier than 85% of rated economies and 50 points riskier than Australia.
An override floors the band at High: UNSC sanctions framework (Guinea-Bissau).
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, high physical climate vulnerability, thin secure internet infrastructure and poor government effectiveness.
Relative strengths: growth volatility sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and currency stability and GDP growth both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
- Payment security. Elevated sovereign/transfer risk: prefer confirmed letters of credit or export credit insurance over open account terms, and watch for import-payment restrictions.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
- Disaster resilience. High natural-hazard exposure: build business-continuity plans, check insurance availability (including parametric covers), and avoid single-point supply dependencies.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 43.2 | 69.0 | High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 24.7 | 93.4 | Very High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 36.1 | 89.5 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 35.7 | 89.1 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 20.6 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 55.3 | 75.6 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 5.0% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±0.9 pp | 0.7 | Low | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 75.3 | 80.0 | Very High | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 0.9 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -7.7% (3-yr avg) | 65.0 | High | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $3,293 | 91.7 | Very High | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.16 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Pegged — credible (reserve-backed, low inflation gap) | 12.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.6 | 65.6 | High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 1.1 | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 4.9 | 43.0 | Medium | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.622 | 96.1 | Very High | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 4.3 | 63.4 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 4.5 | 39.1 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 80.1 | 92.2 | Very High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.3 | 87.8 | Very High | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 29.8 | 90.6 | Very High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.1 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 10.9 | 95.1 | Very High | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
2.7%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Guinea-Bissau in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.
16.1 · Baseline for every comparison
65.8 · 0.1 points lower than Guinea-Bissau
65.0 · 1.0 points lower than Guinea-Bissau
67.8 · 1.8 points higher than Guinea-Bissau
63.6 · 2.3 points lower than Guinea-Bissau