RUS · snapshot 2026-08-09
Russian Federation
Very HighOverride appliedOverall risk score
65.8
Percentile of scored universe
84th
Data coverage
90%
vs Australia (16.1)
+49.7
Rated Very High on its own indicators; a gate condition is also flagged.
The Very High rating stands on the computed score of 65.8 (Very High). The flagged condition — Comprehensive Australian autonomous sanctions framework (Russia) — would floor the band at Very High even on weaker data.
Sanctions & banking access
Where sanctions make Russian Federation hard to operate in — under Australian law, under US/EU extraterritorial reach, and in practice at the bank. Comprehensive frameworks force Very High; severe secondary exposure or severed banking floors the band at High; the rest is disclosure.
Australian sanctions
DFAT frameworks that legally restrict Australian companies
Comprehensive Australian autonomous sanctions framework (Russia)
US/EU secondary sanctions
Extraterritorial programs that bind you regardless of Australian law
CAATSA and EO 14024 secondary sanctions reach non-US banks and firms dealing with designated Russian entities
Banking access
Will correspondent banks actually move your money out
Major banks disconnected from SWIFT; USD/EUR clearing for Russian counterparties effectively unavailable
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Very High6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
Medium6 indicators · 85% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Very High5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
Very High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Very High9 indicators · 100% coverage · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Russian Federation rates Very High for market entry — an overall risk score of 65.8, riskier than 84% of rated economies and 50 points riskier than Australia.
The rating is forced to Very High by an override: Comprehensive Australian autonomous sanctions framework (Russia). Whatever the underlying arithmetic says, this market is effectively closed to routine Australian business.
Beyond the Australian framework, US/EU secondary sanctions apply in force: CAATSA and EO 14024 secondary sanctions reach non-US banks and firms dealing with designated Russian entities. Further, in practice the banking channel is severed: Major banks disconnected from SWIFT; USD/EUR clearing for Russian counterparties effectively unavailable.
The main risk drivers are no investment-treaty protection with Australia, high modern-slavery prevalence (13.0 per 1,000), DFAT travel advice at Level 4 — Do not travel, significant cybercrime origination (WCI 58.4/100) and elevated sovereign credit risk (OECD Category 7 / 7).
Relative strengths: physical climate vulnerability sits in the least-risky quarter of rated economies, and government net debt and current account both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Sanctions exposure. Screen every counterparty against the DFAT Consolidated List and obtain specialist sanctions advice before any dealings — permits may be required and penalties are strict liability.
- Duty of care for people. DFAT advises against non-essential travel. Review duty-of-care obligations, prefer remote engagement, and use in-country agents rather than travelling staff where possible.
- Political violence. Consider political-violence and political-risk insurance, keep asset footprints light, and maintain an exit/continuity plan with defined triggers.
- Organised crime. Expect extortion, counterfeiting, and cargo-theft exposure: harden supply-chain security, vet logistics partners and distributors carefully, and avoid cash-heavy channels.
- Corruption and legal recourse. Run a strong anti-bribery program (Australian foreign-bribery law follows you abroad), conduct third-party due diligence, and seat dispute resolution offshore — arbitration clauses (e.g. SIAC or HKIAC) beat local courts.
- Getting money out. Confirm profit-repatriation channels before committing capital: seek central-bank pre-approvals where required, consider an export-first model over an in-country entity, and structure via clear remittance jurisdictions.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 32.0 | 88.0 | Very High | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 45.1 | 64.6 | High | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 38.0 | 87.6 | Very High | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 37.1 | 84.8 | Very High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 29.8 | 77.1 | Very High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 50.5 | 82.4 | Very High | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 3.3% (3-yr avg) | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±2.7 pp | 32.9 | Medium | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 17.2 | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | 8.7 | 70.0 | High | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | 2.3% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $49,568 | 27.4 | Medium | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 0.16 | 78.0 | Very High | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | Floating — high volatility (20–35%) | 75.0 | Very High | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 7 / 7 | 92.0 | Very High | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | In force | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 2.6 | 65.6 | High | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 2.1 | 91.0 | Very High | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 6.8 | 73.4 | High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 6.9 | 88.8 | Very High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 4 — Do not travel | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.310 | 5.0 | Low | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 4.4 | 66.0 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 13.0 | 95.3 | Very High | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 59.9 | 75.3 | Very High | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.9 | 22.0 | Low | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 94.4 | 16.4 | Low | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 58.4 | 95.0 | Very High | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 26105.3 | 20.2 | Low | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
2.1%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
No higher regional advisory levels
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Russian Federation in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.
16.1 · Baseline for every comparison
65.9 · 0.1 points higher than Russian Federation
65.0 · 0.9 points lower than Russian Federation
67.8 · 1.9 points higher than Russian Federation
63.6 · 2.2 points lower than Russian Federation