PAN · snapshot 2026-08-09
Panama
MediumOverall risk score
44.3
Percentile of scored universe
46th
Data coverage
90%
vs Australia (16.1)
+28.1
Category breakdown
Political Stability & Governance
Medium6 indicators · 100% coverage
Economic Resilience
High6 indicators · 85% coverage
Financial & Currency Risk
Medium5 indicators · 100% coverage
Business Environment
Insufficient dataInsufficient data
Security & Crime
High4 indicators · 100% coverage
Climate & Social Compliance
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Technology & Digital
Medium4 indicators · 100% coverage
Cultural Distance
Insufficient dataInsufficient data · not in overall score
Key risks and considerations
Panama rates Medium for market entry — an overall risk score of 44.3, less risky than 54% of rated economies and 28 points riskier than Australia.
The main risk drivers are no double-tax agreement with Australia, no investment-treaty protection with Australia, a boom-bust growth record (±8.8 pp over the decade), pervasive organised crime (6.9/10) and violent crime (11.7 homicides per 100k).
Relative strengths: currency stability and current account both rate Low, the least-risky rating band.
Possible mitigations
- Organised crime. Expect extortion, counterfeiting, and cargo-theft exposure: harden supply-chain security, vet logistics partners and distributors carefully, and avoid cash-heavy channels.
- Withholding tax. No double-tax agreement with Australia: model withholding tax on dividends, interest, and royalties into the business case — it can decide the entity-vs-export question.
- No treaty recourse. No investment-treaty protection with Australia: consider political-risk insurance for expropriation and transfer risk, since treaty arbitration won't be available.
- Payment fraud. Experts nominate this market as a cybercrime origin (World Cybercrime Index, 2021 survey): verify any change of bank details out-of-band, enforce MFA and dual authorisation on payments, and be sceptical of unsolicited counterparties.
Generated automatically from this snapshot’s indicator data — a starting point for analysis, not advice.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Risk score | Rating | Australia | Data source year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Stability & Governance | ||||||
| Voice & accountability (WGI) | 64.6 | 32.9 | Medium | |||
| Government effectiveness (WGI) | 56.1 | 40.2 | Medium | |||
| Regulatory quality (WGI) | 53.7 | 49.0 | Medium | |||
| Rule of law (WGI) | 52.4 | 55.8 | High | |||
| Control of corruption (WGI) | 36.6 | 65.5 | High | |||
| Political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (WGI PV) | 70.4 | 43.7 | Medium | |||
| Economic Resilience | ||||||
| GDP growth (3-yr average, %) | 4.8% (3-yr avg) | 65.0 | High | |||
| Growth volatility (10-yr std dev, pp) | ±8.8 pp | 91.6 | Very High | |||
| Government net debt (% of GDP) | 40.4 | 25.0 | Medium | |||
| Inflation (CPI %, vs income-group target) | -0.2 | 35.0 | Medium | |||
| Current account (3-yr average, % of GDP) | -0.9% (3-yr avg) | 15.0 | Low | |||
| FX reserves (months of import cover) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| GDP per capita (PPP, current intl $) | $43,902 | 30.9 | Medium | |||
| Financial & Currency Risk | ||||||
| Capital-account openness (Chinn-Ito KAOPEN) | 1.00 | 5.0 | Low | |||
| Currency stability (regime-aware classification) | No independent currency (USD/EUR/AUD in use) | 10.0 | Low | |||
| Sovereign credit risk (OECD country risk classification) | Category 4 / 7 | 45.0 | Medium | |||
| FATF listing (grey / black list status) | Not listed | 0.0 | Low | |||
| Double-tax agreement with Australia | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Business Environment | ||||||
| FDI regulatory restrictiveness (OECD FDIRRI) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Logistics performance (World Bank LPI) | 3.1 | 41.3 | Medium | |||
| Business readiness (World Bank B-READY pillar average) | — | — | Insufficient data | |||
| Investment protection with Australia in force (BIT or FTA investment chapter) | None in force | 100.0 | Very High | |||
| Security & Crime | ||||||
| Armed-conflict intensity (battle deaths per 100k, 5-yr) | 0.0 | 29.7 | Medium | |||
| Intentional homicide rate (per 100k) | 11.7 | 83.1 | Very High | |||
| Organised crime pervasiveness (GI-TOC criminality score) | 6.9 | 89.3 | Very High | |||
| DFAT Smartraveller advisory level | Level 2 — Exercise a high degree of caution | 40.0 | Medium | |||
| Climate & Social Compliance | ||||||
| Physical climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN vulnerability) | 0.428 | 41.8 | Medium | |||
| Disaster risk (INFORM Risk Index) | 4.1 | 59.7 | High | |||
| Modern-slavery prevalence (per 1,000) | 4.7 | 41.6 | Medium | |||
| Modern-slavery vulnerability score | 33.5 | 25.9 | Medium | |||
| Technology & Digital | ||||||
| E-government development (UN EGDI) | 0.7 | 40.7 | Medium | |||
| Internet users (% of population) | 72.8 | 63.2 | High | |||
| Cybercrime origination (World Cybercrime Index) | 0.5 | 30.0 | Medium | |||
| Secure internet servers (per million people) | 2234.5 | 40.2 | Medium | |||
Per-indicator ratings are quartile bands of the 0–100 risk score. The Australia column shows the same indicator’s raw value for the Australian baseline in this snapshot.
Cultural distance
GLOBE 2004 societal practices · rated on distance from Australia · not in the overall score
Context — not scored
Unemployment
8.4%
Displayed, never scored: ambiguous for an entrant and unreliable where informal employment dominates. (2025, ILO modelled)
Trade agreement
No Australian FTA in force
Market access is decision-relevant but a benefit, not a risk — kept out of the rating.
Regional advisories
Higher levels apply in some areas (up to Level 4)
DFAT Smartraveller sub-national advice where it exceeds the overall level.
Compare with
A score means little on its own. These economies scored closest to Panama in this snapshot, which is the fastest way to see whether the rating is telling you something specific or something regional.